Month: January 2020

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Trump rally in Wildwood New Jersey

Last night the President held a rally in a Democrat district in New Jersey. The venue held 7,500. It was packed. There were apparently several thousand people outside the building waiting to get in. There were 175,000 requests for tickets prior to the event. The crowd was fired-up and raucous. The President’s campaign manager reported after the event that about 23% in attendance self-identified as Democrats.

Anyone on the Democrat side that can come close to this? Read or see a lot about it in the media? What if the situation was reversed, do you think the media would cover it then?

I predict the 2020 election will be an electoral landslide for Trump.

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Last-Second Impeachment Game-Playing Is Kavanaugh 2.0

Tristan Justice:

“…President Donald Trump’s opponents are using the same failed tactics to derail the president’s agenda for the crime of winning the 2016 election. On Sunday, The New York Times published leaked details of former National Security Advisor John Bolton’s upcoming book accusing Trump of tying nearly $400 million in military aid to extracting politically motivated investigations into the Biden family.

Never mind that the book leak arrived on the same day that it became available for online pre-ordering, came unsubstantiated, and surfaced from a former White House aide with an axe to grind over his removal. The late leak is reminiscent of previous attempts to sabotage the Trump presidency with unfair operations pushing shady allegations via anonymous sources with no actual evidence paraded as “bombshells” in a compliant media.

The American people have now seen this kind of rollout happen throughout Trump’s time in the Oval Office. It happened with Russia, it happened with Ukraine, it happened with Brett Kavanaugh, and now it’s happening with impeachment…”

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On peace between Israel and the Palestinians

Ian Bremmer:

“…Over the last two days, I received an exclusive early look at President Donald Trump’s proposed plan to resolve the Israel-Palestine conflict. The effort was led by the president’s son-in-law and senior advisor, Jared Kushner. The administration’s peace plan tears up the playbook of prior presidents who have tried and failed to make real progress on peace in the region. The Trump “ultimate deal” is unabashed power politics. It recognizes Israeli power on the ground and recent dramatic shifts in the region’s geopolitics. On top of it all, it’s a deal that carries domestic political upside for the president in the midst of an impeachment hearing.

This proposal will not lead to peace in the coming weeks or months or maybe ever—and it may lead to an immediate outbreak of violence in the Palestinian territories. But, I think by recognizing the harsh realities on the ground and leveraging the unique position of the U.S. in the Middle East, it might open a process that will reduce tension in the region. Based on my early assessment of the plan, it is an effort worth taking…”

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Tony Blair on the Trump Plan:

“This is one of the toughest things I have seen any Administration try. The first time anyone has put down a map. It is a comprehensive plan. It will provoke as much as it pleases but it will force everyone to face up to the real challenges and choices.”

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Political collapse in Iran?

Hamid Enayat:

“…The disqualification of 90 incumbent members of parliament (Majlis) for the next parliamentary elections to be held on February 22 in Iran indicates the intention of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei to consolidate his regime so he can thwart the crises that have been plaguing it.

The disqualified parliamentarians belong to groups other than Khamenei’s inner circle and were disqualified by the unelected Guardian Council, which is entirely and exclusively under the direct control of Khamenei. The supreme leader, however, knows better than anyone else what kind of risks such purging of current M.P.s and other candidates poses.

But what other option is left for Iran’s religious dictatorship? In a country rich in natural resources, where more than two thirds of the population is living below the poverty line, unemployment is raging among the younger generation, especially the most educated, who cry freedom and democracy and a decent life, reflected in the November uprisings, when that segment of the population took the streets against fascism.

Hassan Rouhani, the Iranian regime president, has presented his next year’s budget, which is far from practical. Iran’s oil exports have suffered significant setbacks since the imposition of United States sanctions. The budget is based on the daily export of 1 million barrels of oil, which is undoubtedly far-fetched.

After killing more than 1,500 people and incarcerating 12,000 more during the last November’s uprisings, and at a time when the ruling clerics are facing a deep legitimacy crisis, they can hang on to power only by resorting to sheer repression.

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), the regime’s main force for imposing the repression in the country, is facing defections due to increased isolation after the events of the last few months.

During the uprising last November, a popular outcry in January over the downing of a Ukrainian passenger plane, slogans chanted by people targeted Khamenei. The elimination of Qassem Soleimani, among the regime’s most powerful figures, also struck an irreparable blow to the regime.

The supreme leader, under such circumstances, has to consolidate his position…”

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On polling

Trevor Thomas:

“…According to Real Clear Politics, in spite of the economy and everything else going well in the United States of America, almost every current national poll has President Trump trailing a hypothetical Democrat opponent. Whether Biden; Sanders; Warren; or even Buttigieg, Bloomberg, or Klobuchar, President Trump trails them all in nearly every poll. As of this writing, the latest general election national poll by CNN, IBD/TIPP, Emerson, Fox News, Quinnipiac, and SurveyUSA has President Trump behind almost every possible Democrat candidate.

In 32 different matchups from the six polling agencies previously mentioned, President Trump leads in only two scenarios. The latest IBD/TIPP national poll has Trump beating Warren 47% to 46%, and the latest Emerson poll has Trump beating Buttigieg 51% to 49%. According to these polls, even Democrats who have since dropped out of the race were beating President Trump.

The latest SurveyUSA national poll (at the end of November, 2019) had Kamala Harris beating the current president of the United States 47% to 42%. At the point Harris dropped out of the race, the Real Clear Politics average had her at plus six over President Trump. Out of 42 polls reported by Real Clear Politics — from June of 2018 until November of 2019 — Trump topped Harris only six times. Again, remember that this is a candidate who couldn’t outlast even Julián Castro and Marianne Williamson.

The lesson here is the 2016 presidential election. At this point in the 2016 presidential election, up until Election Day on November 8, 2016, Hillary Clinton led Donald Trump in the vast majority of polls taken. By my count (using a spreadsheet), as reported by Real Clear Politics (RCP), there were 221 polls taken in 2016 that polled Clinton vs. Trump for U.S. president. Donald Trump led in only 26 polls. Twenty-six out of 221. That’s over 88% of the polls that showed Clinton beating Trump.

Often, the race between Clinton and Trump was shown as a complete blowout in favor of Hillary. From January of 2016 through April of 2016, there were a dozen polls that showed Hillary up by double digits. A March 2016 Bloomberg poll had Hillary up by 18 points!

Similarly, at this point in 2016, until Bernie Sanders dropped out of the race, virtually every poll had him leading Donald Trump. From January of 2016 until June of 2016, when Bernie dropped out, RCP reported 28 polls on Sanders vs. Trump. Of those 28 polls, Trump polled ahead of Bernie only once. At the time the polling ended (when Bernie dropped out of the race), the RCP average had Sanders topping Trump by over 10 points!

Again, the race between Trump and Bernie was often shown to be a huge blowout in favor of Bernie. Of those 28 RCP polls, 22 of them had Bernie on top by double digits. Twelve polls had Bernie up by 15 points or more. The same Bloomberg poll that had Hillary topping Trump by 18 points showed Bernie beating Trump by 24 points!…”

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On the state of Democrat politicos

Christopher Chantrill:

“…In When Prophecy Fails, according to Leon Festinger et al., the believers don’t just throw up their hands and go back to ordinary life. Instead they intensify their faith and sharpen up the prophecy. The problem, they decide, is that their faith wasn’t deep enough; they didn’t read the texts right. It is not till later that they lose heart and #WalkAway.

They sure do. They passed AB5 in California to stop the gig economy, which was viewed as an insult to government employee unions. Only it turns out that the artists, writers, and musicians of the wokerati are hardest hit. They passed gun control measures in newly blue Virginia right after 20,000 2A activists had peacefully protested at the State Capitol. They decriminalized petty crime in California and New York City. Like that will help struggling small businesses. And of course, the granddaddy of them all, they impeached a duly elected President of the United States, for reasons.

These are not the actions of a cunning political party carefully plotting how to win 51 percent of the vote at the next election. These are the desperate actions of a religious cult traumatized by the failure of prophecy. And never mind the science! That mucking around with the labor market hurts people at the bottom. That rifles are not a major cause of gun deaths. That “broken windows” policing broke the crime wave in New York City…”

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On the 2020 Election, good insight

This is the hard political center of gravity for the upcoming election.

Brad Parscale:

“…If you want to get a better understanding of the type of people who make up President Trump’s coalition, try attending one of his rallies.

Contrary to the media’s straw-man portrayal of a stereotypical Trump voter, Keep America Great rallies attract voters of all demographic descriptions from across the political spectrum who have been uplifted by his policies. These patriotic Americans love our country and everything it stands for. Trump supporters are not embarrassed by our founding, our history, or our Constitution. All they want is to live in a great America, and Donald Trump is the only leader who unabashedly shares that goal.

After attending dozens of Trump rallies throughout the country, I can definitively say that there is no politician in America who is capable of uniting voters like this president — and the data we’ve gathered from these events proves it. As I’ve been saying since 2016, data doesn’t lie.

Out of more than 20,000 identified voters who came to a recent Trump rally in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, 57.9 percent did not have a history of voting for Republicans. Remarkably, 4,413 attendees didn’t even vote in the last election — a clear indication that President Trump is energizing Americans who were previously not engaged in politics.

The Milwaukee rally wasn’t exceptional in that respect. It was just like other rallies the president has held all over the country.

Nearly 22 percent of identified supporters at President Trump’s rally in Toledo, Ohio, were Democrats, and another 21 percent were independents. An astounding 15 percent of identified voters who saw the president speak in Battle Creek, Michigan, has not voted in any of the last four elections. In Hershey, Pennsylvania, just over 20 percent of identified voters at the rally were Democrats, and 18 percent were non-white.

The list of jaw-dropping rally statistics goes on. And on. And on…”

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Shut Down This Tiring Farce

Worth clicking over. A good read.

“…This impeachment is a dead, rotting fish, devised and promoted for contemptible motives by unworthy legislators and unsupported by law or fact . . . it is an abusive perversion of the Constitution…”

Conrad Black:

“…The next step in the impeachment of the president needs to be considered in both its legal and political aspects.

The legal issue is easily determined, is evident from the first few days of proceedings, and remains a foregone conclusion. It was obvious from the endlessly repetitive and absurdly overstated arguments of the House managers, Representatives Adam Schiff (D-Calif.) and Jerry Nadler (D-N.Y.) in particular, that they had no legal case. There was no evidence that the president committed a high crime or misdemeanor as the Constitution requires for a president to be removed from office in such a proceeding.

What was alleged was not anything that could be so described, and they fell far short of proof that what they alleged even occurred. They tried to mislead the Senate and the public by splicing quotes, quoting previous witnesses out of context, and immersing their turgid presentation in a vast, confected odium that they try to spread over the president and his reputation like a lethal gas.

Underscoring their incandescent hatred of the president, Schiff acknowledged that Trump must be removed now to prevent his reelection, that an unnamed source had been cited by CBS who alleged Trump had told Republican senators that if they deserted him their heads would be put on pikes. Nadler accused any Republican voting to acquit the president of “treachery” and of participation in the (inevitable) “cover-up” of Trump’s crimes: again, no evidence of any probative value was adduced that he had committed the acts objected to, which were, in any case, not illegal.

Chief Justice John Roberts reminded Nadler of where he was, though dutifully equivocal as he is, he addressed the admonition to both sides. In two hours on Saturday morning, the president’s counsel, Pat Cipollone and Jay Sekulow, reduced the interminable malign verbosity of Schiff and Nadler to rubble…”

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Doug Santo