Climate Science is About to Make a Huge Mistake

“…Scenarios are fundamental to climate research and policy. As THB readers know better than most everyone, for years climate science and policy have been off track in relying heavily on an outdated extreme emissions scenario called RCP8.5, one of four RCP scenarios developed starting almost two decades ago.1

Some in the climate science community, though slow out of the blocks, have come around to recognize that extreme scenarios should not be prioritized in climate research to inform policy. In a paper published last week,2 a group of experts in scenarios and scenario-based research gave advice, requested by the climate modeling community, for the next generation of scenarios and they concluded that high emissions scenarios be given “lower priority.”3

However, the scientists in the earth system modeling community who received that advice and are deciding upon the next generation of scenarios have rejected that advice, and have instead chosen — again — to assign the most extreme scenario its highest priority.4 …”