At a 6.125% mortgage rate the average home price in the US needs to fall ~32% to reach its pre-Covid affordability relative to income.

~10% to GFC highs, ~23% to late 2018 (which was a very slow RE mkt).

So seems like -15-30% is an extremely likely outcome if rates stay here.

— Sid Prabhu (@sidprabhu) June 14, 2022

Thats just one sector (albeit a very rate sensitive one) of the economy. The Fed is about to push the economy into a very hard landing IMO.

— Sid Prabhu (@sidprabhu) June 14, 2022