Another poll of Virginia shows race between Youngkin and McAuliffe tied

“…The smart money is on a Youngkin victory at this point, right? Today’s Monmouth survey is the second straight poll to have the race even (Trafalgar was the other), and in the span of three weeks McAuliffe’s lead in the RCP average has been cut by more than half. Today it’s down to 1.8 points. He led by five points on October 1.

Virginians are making up their minds in the final weeks before the vote. Youngkin’s Trump-friendly-but-not-too-friendly strategy appears to be convincing a meaningful number to roll the dice on a Republican for the first time in 12 years.

You don’t even need to know what the polls say to know that he’s closing on McAuliffe, in fact. The Democrat’s behavior lately reeks from the stench of flop sweat. As a Twitter pal said this morning, for weeks McAuliffe has projected a sense of irritation that he’s being made to work for a victory in a state Biden carried by 10 points. Recently, however, he seems more desperate than annoyed. Whatever he’s seeing in his own numbers clearly has him believing that he might lose.

He might. From Monmouth:

Youngkin (46%) and McAuliffe (46%) hold identical levels of support among all registered voters. This marks a shift from prior Monmouth polls where the Democrat held a 5-point lead (48% to 43% in September and 47% to 42% in August). A range of probabilistic likely electorate models* shows a potential outcome – if the election was held today – of anywhere from a 3-point lead for McAuliffe (48% to 45%) to a 3-point lead for Youngkin (48% to 45%). This is the first time the Republican has held a lead in Monmouth polls this cycle.…

The biggest swing in support from Monmouth’s last poll comes from independent voters, registering a 48% to 39% lead for Youngkin now compared with a 37% to 46% deficit in September. Youngkin has also cut into McAuliffe’s advantage with women voters. The Democrat currently has a narrow edge among women (47% to 43%), down from a sizable 14-point lead last month (52% to 38%).

Biden’s approval in this poll stands at 43/52. In a state he won by 10 points…”