“…Party ID — Democrats’ proportion of the electorate significantly drops to a historic low, making Democrats de facto the third party in this election.
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- Democrats went from 37% of the Presidential electorate in 2020 to 31% in 2024, a 6-point drop.
- Independents went from 27% in 2020 to 34% in 2024, a signicant 7-point increase.
- While the overall percentage of the electorate that was Republican decreased by 1%, going from 36% in 2020 to 35% in 2024, Republicans had a +4 party ID advantage, after not having any advantage in the ten prior presidential elections.
- Republicans had a presidential party ID advantage over Democrats in all of the seven competitive states, and independents were a larger portion of the electorate than Democrats in five of those states.
- These shifts were significant positives for Republicans at the Congressional level, who were able to sustain their 2022 party ID advantage of +3 points as independents surpassed Democrats who fell to third place as a portion of the Congressional electorate as well.
Issues — The economy, not abortion.
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- The first election of Trump in 2016 was a rejection of the status quo and political establishment. The 2024 election was a rejection of the policy direction of the Biden-Harris administration. The view of the economy was extremely negative. The overwhelming majority said inflation had been a hardship, and a large portion of the electorate said their financial situation had gotten worse in the last four years.
- While Democrats tried to focus on abortion to take attention off the economy, in the end, polls showed Biden’s negative job approval overwhelmed the Harris messaging and tied her to his record.
- The electorate’s prioritizing of the candidate attributes of leadership and change —which Trump won decisively—helped overcome his negative image in voter decision-making.
Key voters — Who moved.
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- Harris could not sustain Biden’s performance with independents. He won them by 13 points; her margin was only 3.
- Trump won 46% of Hispanics, a significant increase from 32% in 2020.
- Among women, Harris’ margin was only +8, compared to +15 for Biden in 2020 and +13 for Clinton in 2016.
- Late deciders broke for Trump 51-42.
Conclusion
Republicans won the political trifecta — the Presidency and majorities in the Senate and House of Representatives. Additionally, Trump won the popular vote, only the second time for a Republican over the last nine presidential elections. He was helped in this by a presidential Republican party ID advantage of +4, the largest 1984 forward.
But the big question that emerges from this election is what happened to the Democratic Party? In the last 10 Presidential elections, the Democrats made up the largest portion of the electorate in terms of party identification (being even at 37% with Republicans for first in 2004). In this election, not only was that streak broken, but Democrats fell behind independents as well – into third place.
The clear question from this election is — where did those Democrats go? There are two possibilities. First, they just didn’t show up to vote while independent turnout increased significantly. This theory would contradict the public survey data done prior to the election that said Democrats were very motivated to vote, while independents were not. The other is that many Democrats changed their party identification to independent. Either way, it shows an electorate that moved away from Democrats as a result of Biden policies and voted for change. Democrats will need to think through how to bring voters back, which is very different than forming the next version of opposition.
The election was a positive outcome for Trump and the GOP, but the presidential race was still close. Over the last 14 presidential races, only one had a closer popular vote margin than this: Bush in 2000. This election was a rejection of the last four years and a strong willingness to listen to new policy approaches. That is a significant opportunity and positive starting point for the incoming Trump administration and Republicans as they focus on the issues that matter to the electorate, but they must deliver on the economy…”