Dire Strait: Sure Looks Like China Is Writing Off the Ayatollahs
“…Sun writes, Beijing has belatedly realized how poorly Iran performs, both economically and in terms of real power projection. Only when the West appeases Iran does the regime appear strong. When the West confronts Iran, everything withers, including their will to fight. Sun writes that Trump isn’t the only one looking forward to a potential regime change:
Although Chinese state media have refrained from openly criticizing the regime, the Chinese policy community focused on the Middle East is clear-eyed about the bad decision-making, rampant corruption and poor governance in Tehran. Israel’s ability to infiltrate the Iranian security apparatus, which is what allowed it to effectively target Iranian military leaders and nuclear scientists during the 12-day war, suggests that many Iranian officials don’t trust their system and are willing to sell out their country. Chinese leaders are skeptical of the viability of an Iranian state that its own officials don’t have faith in.
China’s disillusionment with Iran’s leaders means that Beijing is not inherently opposed to regime change. Because its priority is to ensure that Iran remains a viable economic partner, it is regime agnostic. In fact, if the U.S. and Israeli attacks curtail Iran’s rogue military ambitions and the country repositions itself as an economic power in the Middle East, it could represent a future that China embraces.
China also has a meeting with Trump at the end of March. Xi wants to find a rapprochement with Trump on trade as well as global security concerns. Iran could have been leverage in those talks before the war broke out, but now it will be either a liability or potentially a deal-breaker…”
