“…Xi arrives boxed in on every front. He cannot defend Iran without alienating the Gulf states. He cannot abandon Iran without appearing weak to the remaining members of the coalition he spent a decade assembling. He needs a trade deal to stabilize China’s economy, which is slowing far faster than Beijing admits. Official figures claim 5 percent growth, but Rhodium Group, a widely cited independent research firm, puts the real number at closer to 2.5 to 3 percent. He needs Trump in a generous mood.
The deepest damage, though, is something Xi cannot afford to acknowledge: what losing Iran means for Taiwan.
Most analysts think about a Chinese invasion of Taiwan in military terms. Can Beijing’s forces actually land there and take the island? But invading Taiwan would also trigger western sanctions far worse than any-thing imposed on Russia. And after what happened to Khamenei, Beijing knows that escalation does not end with sanctions. To survive all that, China needs countries willing to sell it oil off the books, help it move money past western banks and provide political cover. Iran and Russia were supposed to be those countries.
China could still invade Taiwan, but not with any confidence that the CCP would survive the consequences. Some will argue that makes Xi more dangerous, that a leader who sees his options shrinking might act before they disappear. But everything he is doing points the other way. He is shoring up his economy, not preparing for war.
The summit will be conducted in the language of trade. Iran will hang over every session, but don’t expect that in the communiqué. Every government from Tokyo to Riyadh will read the subtext.
Xi will sit across from Trump and speak the language of a strong and ascendant China. The image is no longer the reality…”
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