Posted on by Doug Santo

I no longer assume good faith in situations like this…

We’re told to ‘follow the science’ — yet some of it is just plain wrong

“…In recent years, there have been a lot of catchphrases around science: “Follow the science!” “We believe in science!” Even “The science is settled!”

Well, sometimes it’s not settled. Sometimes it’s not even really science. But lots of people believe in it or follow it anyway. It’s a global problem.

Most recently, we learned that a widely noticed 2012 study co-authored by Dan Ariely — whom the journal Science refers to as a “superstar honesty researcher” — was based on fake data.

Ariely is indeed a superstar, and his work is highly influential. He’s written multiple New York Times bestsellers. He founded a center at Duke University. And his research has affected the policies of corporations and government institutions.

Ariely’s 2012 paper found that people were more honest when they signed a promise to be honest at the beginning of a transaction than when they signed the same promise at the end. The idea was that the early exposure to the importance of honesty set the tone. The Obama administration’s Social and Behavioral Sciences Team recommended this approach to the government. It seemed like a cheap and easy way of promoting good behavior.

The only problem is, it’s not true. Other scientists found that his work couldn’t be replicated. And a deep dive into the data Ariely used determined that it couldn’t possibly be correct. Even Ariely agrees that the criticisms are “damning” and “clear beyond doubt.”

Did Ariely commit fraud — he says no — or was the data set he got from an insurance company faked for some reason? People are looking into that, but in a way the problem is bigger. Whether or not it was Ariely’s fault, a study that influenced policy turns out to have been baseless. And scientific peer review, often defended as the gold standard for research, didn’t spot the problem…”

Remember what Feynman said:

Doug Santo