“…Election 2020 is shaping up to be déjà vu all over again for the news media. In an effort to help push Joe Biden over the finish line, the Washington establishment is going all-in on the easily refuted idea that there has been no change in the presidential race over the last three weeks.
“With Two Months To Go, a Steady Presidential Race,” writes Amy Walter of the Cook Political Report.
“The Latest Polls, the Great Non-Tightening: This Week in the 2020 Race,” write Astead W. Herndon and Annie Karni of The New York Times.
“In a time of disruption and unrest, the presidential race has changed little,” writes Dan Balz of the Washington Post.
After having botched the entire news coverage of the 2016 election, where all the “experts” repeatedly told the American public that Donald Trump had little to no chance of being the Republican nominee and even less a chance of being elected president, corporate media are back at it again, insisting all is well with the Biden campaign and the Democrats are safely on cruise control to take the White House and the Senate. Here’s the truth they are not telling you…
And:
…On August 1, Biden had a 25-point edge in the betting odds. By September 1, Trump had completely made up that deficit and the race was even among the betting public.
In Florida, a state the Trump campaign must win, Biden’s lead of 8.4 points in the RealClearPolitics average at the end of July sits now at 1.8, with the latest poll showing President Trump with a three-point lead. Quinnipiac, a pollster that is not perceived as Trump-friendly, shows Biden’s lead plummeting 10 points, from 13 to just three.
In Pennsylvania, an absolute must-win state for the Biden campaign, Biden’s lead of 8.5 in the RealClearPolitics average near the end of July has been cut in half to 4.2. Monmouth University, again another pollster not viewed as friendly to Trump, shows Biden’s lead falling eight points, from 11 to three points.
In Michigan, Wisconsin, and North Carolina, Biden’s lead from the end of July to the end of August has been cut significantly, according to the Real Clear Politics average. Arizona is the only state where Biden’s lead has grown in the RealClearPolitics average. It should be noted that Arizona’s RCP average was significantly affected by a single outlying FOX News poll that claims Trump is down nine points in the state, which he won in 2016. CNBC, by contrast, has Biden up by only two points.
Incredibly, both NBC News and the Cook Political Report continue to rate Florida as “Lean Democrat” according to their “experts.” No offense, but do they think people are stupid?
Trump won Florida by more than one point four years ago and a state Democrats were unable to carry in 2018, when they lost both the governor and senate races. That year, the RCP polling average predicted Florida Democrat Andrew Gillum would win by 3.6 points. He in fact lost narrowly to Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis. The RCP polling average predicted Democrat Bill Nelson would win by 2.4. He lost to Rick Scott narrowly. Those polling averages were less off than the final result mostly because Trafalgar called the race correctly.
The latest Quinnipiac poll shows a 10-point momentum in Florida toward Trump, where he trails within the margin of error, and where Trafalgar has the president ahead by three points. (For what it’s worth, Trafalgar was the only pollster to correctly poll key states in the 2016 and 2018 races.)
The media and the Democrats may not like it, but this race is clearly different from where it was at the end of June, where Trump’s job approval had been going down for three straight months and he bottomed out at 41 percent in the RealClearPolitics average. Today Trump’s job approval is on a three-month upswing and is over 44 percent in the RealClearPolitics average. Three points may not seem like a lot, but in the real world where the critical battleground states will likely be decided by less than that amount, three points are the difference between winning and losing…”