Steven A. Camarota and Karen Zeigler:
At present, the apportionment of House seats to each state and the drawing of district lines are based on total population — not citizenship.1 The nation’s 22 million non-citizens, slightly less than half of whom are here illegally, are not evenly distributed across congressional districts.2 As a result, there are many districts in which a large share of the population is not made up of U.S. citizens. It typically requires many more votes to win in districts comprised largely of citizens than in districts with large non-citizen populations. This raises important questions about the principle of “one person one vote” because the inclusion of non-citizens in apportionment and redistricting means that the number of citizens and voters varies enormously by district. This situation also has a partisan dimension, as the presence of non-citizens strongly correlates with support for Democratic candidates.
The findings show:
- The profound impact of non-citizens can be seen in the 12 districts with the lowest share of citizens, which have roughly the same population of voting-age U.S. citizens as the nine districts with the highest citizen shares. This means Americans in the high-citizen districts have only nine representatives in Congress while those in the lowest-citizenship districts have 12, even though the combined populations of citizens are roughly equal.3
- The number of citizens and vote totals in a district can differ partly because of the way House seats are apportioned between the states.4 But even within the same state, where district populations should be even, there were significant distortions caused by immigration in 2018.5
- Texas: The 33rd district, where one-third of adults are not citizens, has 262,000 fewer voting-age citizens than the 21st district, where 6 percent are not citizens.
- Florida: The 25th district, where more than one-fourth of adults are not citizens, has 199,000 fewer voting-age citizens than the 11th district, where 3 percent are not citizens.
- California: The 40th district, where one-third of adults are not citizens, has 233,000 fewer voting-age citizens than the 4th district, where 4 percent are not citizens.
- New York: The 14th district, where nearly one-third of adults are not citizens, has 172,000 fewer voting-age citizens than the 27th district, where 1 percent are not citizens.
- District populations also vary in the number of citizens as they grow at different rates after redistricting occurs every 10 years. But the data from soon after the 2010 census still shows very large differences within the same states.6
- Texas: The 33rd district, where more than one-third of adults were not citizens, had 236,000 fewer voting-age citizens than the 21st district, where 6 percent were not citizens.
- Florida: The 25th district, where more than one-fourth of adults were not citizens, had 176,000 fewer voting-age citizens than the 11th district, where 3 percent were not citizens.
- California: The 40th district, where 38 percent of adults were not citizens, had 246,000 fewer voting-age citizens than the 1st district, where 3 percent were not citizens.
- New York: The 15th district, where more than one-fourth of adults were not citizens, had 190,000 fewer voting-age citizens than the 27th district, where 1 percent were not citizens.
- The citizen share of the voting-age population also has a large impact on turnout. In the five districts with the largest non-citizen shares, roughly half as many votes were cast in the 2018 election than in the five districts with the highest citizen shares. In effect, each voter in the five highest-citizenship districts had about half the influence on the election as voters in the five lowest-citizenship districts.7
- In the 13 House districts where more than one in four adults is not an American citizen, only 158,000 votes were cast on average in the 2018 mid-terms. In contrast, in the 46 districts in which less than 2 percent of adults are not a citizen, 263,000 votes were cast on average.8
- It took many more votes to win a district comprised largely of citizens than it did in districts with large non-citizen populations in 2018. On average, the winning candidate received about 50 percent more votes in the 46 districts where less than 2 percent of adults are non-citizens than in the 13 districts where more than one in four adults is a non-citizen.9
- Districts with large non-citizen shares of the population tend to vote overwhelmingly Democratic, while high-citizenship districts lean strongly Republican, but not as strongly as non-citizen heavy districts vote Democratic.
- Of 16 districts where more than one in four adults is not an American citizen, only one is represented by a Republican. Of the 29 districts where at least one in five adults is not an American citizen, still only one is represented by a Republican.
- In the 46 districts in which less than 2 percent of adults are not American citizens, 41 are represented by a Republican. In the 108 districts in which less than 3 percent of adults are not American citizens, 87 are represented by a Republican.