Trevor Thomas:
“…According to Real Clear Politics, in spite of the economy and everything else going well in the United States of America, almost every current national poll has President Trump trailing a hypothetical Democrat opponent. Whether Biden; Sanders; Warren; or even Buttigieg, Bloomberg, or Klobuchar, President Trump trails them all in nearly every poll. As of this writing, the latest general election national poll by CNN, IBD/TIPP, Emerson, Fox News, Quinnipiac, and SurveyUSA has President Trump behind almost every possible Democrat candidate.
In 32 different matchups from the six polling agencies previously mentioned, President Trump leads in only two scenarios. The latest IBD/TIPP national poll has Trump beating Warren 47% to 46%, and the latest Emerson poll has Trump beating Buttigieg 51% to 49%. According to these polls, even Democrats who have since dropped out of the race were beating President Trump.
The latest SurveyUSA national poll (at the end of November, 2019) had Kamala Harris beating the current president of the United States 47% to 42%. At the point Harris dropped out of the race, the Real Clear Politics average had her at plus six over President Trump. Out of 42 polls reported by Real Clear Politics — from June of 2018 until November of 2019 — Trump topped Harris only six times. Again, remember that this is a candidate who couldn’t outlast even Julián Castro and Marianne Williamson.
The lesson here is the 2016 presidential election. At this point in the 2016 presidential election, up until Election Day on November 8, 2016, Hillary Clinton led Donald Trump in the vast majority of polls taken. By my count (using a spreadsheet), as reported by Real Clear Politics (RCP), there were 221 polls taken in 2016 that polled Clinton vs. Trump for U.S. president. Donald Trump led in only 26 polls. Twenty-six out of 221. That’s over 88% of the polls that showed Clinton beating Trump.
Often, the race between Clinton and Trump was shown as a complete blowout in favor of Hillary. From January of 2016 through April of 2016, there were a dozen polls that showed Hillary up by double digits. A March 2016 Bloomberg poll had Hillary up by 18 points!
Similarly, at this point in 2016, until Bernie Sanders dropped out of the race, virtually every poll had him leading Donald Trump. From January of 2016 until June of 2016, when Bernie dropped out, RCP reported 28 polls on Sanders vs. Trump. Of those 28 polls, Trump polled ahead of Bernie only once. At the time the polling ended (when Bernie dropped out of the race), the RCP average had Sanders topping Trump by over 10 points!
Again, the race between Trump and Bernie was often shown to be a huge blowout in favor of Bernie. Of those 28 RCP polls, 22 of them had Bernie on top by double digits. Twelve polls had Bernie up by 15 points or more. The same Bloomberg poll that had Hillary topping Trump by 18 points showed Bernie beating Trump by 24 points!…”
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