Daniel Henninger:
“…The traditional view of African-American voters supporting the Democratic Party could be upended by three recent polls, which show growing support for President Trump among black voters. What if in November enough black Americans voted for Donald Trump to re-elect him into the presidency?
This unlikely straw has been in the political winds recently because in three opinion polls—Emerson, Marist and Rasmussen—President Trump registered about 30% support among black voters.
Asked to respond by, former Hillary Clinton adviser Joel Payne said: “I have a better chance of jumping center for the Celtics tonight than Donald Trump having 30% support in the African-American community.” He may get the call.
The reason this unlikely 30% number breaks the seals in Democratic heads is that for years it has been a rule of thumb in politics that if black support for Republicans ever reached 20% of the total vote, a Democratic presidential candidate would not be able to win, ever.
A Gallup analysis of the Roper Center’s exit poll data has Republican candidates averaging about 10% of the black vote since 1976. In 2016, Mr. Trump topped out at 8%. Still, one wonders if Mr. Trump’s potential pull from black and Hispanic voters may be the sleeper issue of the 2020 campaign, the way conventional wisdom missed the 2016 Trump vote in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin.
One anecdote: I was walking through a neighborhood food court in Manhattan last month and noticed a new counter that sells smoked fish. Behind it, learning the operation, were five employees—all in their 20s and all black or Hispanic. A thought occurred to me: That’s the Trump economy. That is the reality behind the monthly jobs numbers. An entrepreneur got a loan to open this small business and gave these five what looked like their first jobs. Also reported in the past two years is how workers in their first or second jobs are moving up the pay scale into higher-level jobs…”