Netanyahu is one of the most accomplished and shrewd politicians both internally and internationally. He is far from defeated.
Dominic Green:
“…On Wednesday, Netanyahu met with the leaders of the religious parties, Likud’s historic partners, and also with the leaders of the parties of the nationalist right — apart, of course, from Lieberman — and obtained their consent to act as a single bloc in coalition talks. ‘We decided unanimously that we’re going forward together to negotiations that will establish a government led by me,’ Netanyahu announced afterwards.
This maneuver allows Netanyahu to claim that he represents 55 seats, not 31, and to be the first to attempt to form a coalition. It turns Lieberman from kingmaker to petitioner at the gate. It reduces the scale of Blue & White’s leverage, and raises the possibility of splitting Blue & White. ‘Now there are only two possibilities,’ Netanyahu explained on Wednesday with his usual charm, ‘a government led by me, or a dangerous government that depends on the Arabs.’
The likely outcomes from this election aren’t so different from the last. Netanyahu comes out on top, one way or another. He tries to form a majority coalition, with Lieberman and immunity from prosecution as the stumbling blocks. If he can’t, he can try to rule with a plausible minority coalition, with annexing parts of the West Bank as the issue that will split Blue & White. If that fails, there’ll be a third election in the space of one year. The voters, who didn’t want a second election, will be even more angry about a third, and will, rightly, blame Lieberman and Blue & White. Given which, Netanyahu will probably lose that third election better than he did this election, and perhaps lose it even better than he lost April’s election…”