A Critical Reassessment of the Anthropogenic CO₂-Global Warming Hypothesis (pdf download)
Abstract:
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) attributes observed climate variability primarily to anthropogenic CO₂ emissions, asserting that these emissions have driven approximately 1 Wm⁻² of net radiative forcing since 1750, resulting in a global temperature rise of 0.8- 1.1°C. This conclusion relies heavily on adjusted datasets and outputs from global climate models (GCMs) within the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) framework. However, this study conducts a rigorous evaluation of these assertions by juxtaposing them against unadjusted observational data and synthesizing findings from recent peer-reviewed literature. Our analysis reveals that human CO₂ emissions, constituting a mere 4% of the annual carbon cycle, are dwarfed by natural fluxes, with isotopic signatures and residence time data indicating negligible long-term atmospheric retention. Moreover, individual CMIP3 (2005-2006), CMIP5 (2010-2014), andCMIP6 (2013-2016) model runs consistently fail to replicate observed temperature trajectories and sea ice extent trends, exhibiting correlations (R²) near zero when compared to unadjusted records. A critical flaw emerges in the IPCC’s reliance on a single, low-variability Total Solar Irradiance (TSI) reconstruction, despite the existence of 27 viable alternatives, where higher-variability options align closely with observed warming—itself exaggerated by data adjustments. We conclude that the anthropogenic CO₂-Global Warming hypothesis lacks empirical substantiation, overshadowed by natural drivers such as temperature feedbacks and solar variability, necessitating a fundamental reevaluation of current climate paradigms.