William DiPuccio:
“…Skepticism is at the heart of the scientific method. Question everything. Test everything. Scientific knowledge is established by evidence, not authority. The method is sound, but the execution may be imperfect. That’s why I have faith in the methods of science but not necessarily in scientists.
Experts in science have a store of credibility that can be maintained only by their performance. I have a great deal of trust in the meteorologists at the National Weather Service because their forecasts are 80%–90% accurate (no weatherman jokes, please — I used to be one!). But if most of their predictions began to fail, I would turn elsewhere for my weather forecasts.
So it comes as a surprise that so many in the public have expressed a growing trust in medical scientists, even after a series of spectacular failures. According to a newly published survey by Pew Research, public confidence in medical scientists to act in the best interest of the public increased from 35% in 2019, with “a great deal of confidence before the outbreak,” to 43% in April 2020.
Granted, some of the public health failures surrounding the COVID-19 pandemic were the result of incomplete data, but many of them could have been avoided:
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- Experts wildly over-projected the number of deaths, relying, in part, on a computer model that was poorly coded and unvetted.
- Experts locked down the entire country, ignoring differences in population density between rural areas and cities and vulnerability due to age and underlying conditions.
- Experts ignored lessons from the 1918 pandemic, which showed that lockdowns result in more infections and deaths by preventing herd immunity (National Academy of Sciences).
- Experts told us not to wear a mask, then told us that everyone must wear a mask, despite studies that suggest that cloth masks are ineffective.
- Experts tell us the masks protect those around us, ignoring previous research that showed that masks are much more effective in protecting the wearer (Plos One Journal).
- Experts told us we need to “flatten the curve” before we can open up society. Now some are moving the goalpost, saying we should wait until vaccinations are administered.
- Experts did little to communicate the inherent uncertainties of their projections and the advice they were dispensing, thus creating a false sense of public trust.
The public’s growth in confidence, following these failures, parallels the reaction of cult followers who, after a failed doomsday prediction, double down in their adherence to the cult and its leadership. A rational response to failed predictions and bad advice would be to reject any new declarations, or at least approach them with skepticism. But cult followers place their faith in authority rather than evidence, so their confidence is largely unshaken by contradictory data.
This newfound confidence in medical scientists correlates directly with political affiliation. Among Republicans (and those leaning Republican), there was virtually no change in public trust, which stands at 31% this year (a 1% decrease from 2019). But among Democrats (and those leaning Democrat), confidence rose from 37% in 2019, to 53% in 2020 — a 16% increase. The difference in public confidence between the two parties amounts to 22 percentage points…”