Michael Barone looks at the primary results in California republican districts that went for Clinton in the last national election to distill predictions for the next congress. He finds some good news for republicans.
“…This would be in line with polling that shows Donald Trump to enjoy almost universal job approval among self-identified Republicans—higher than all but one post-World War II president enjoyed at this stage in their tenure from his fellow partisans.
The 1994-2014 partisan divisions have been unusually long-enduring, aside from the short-lived shift to Democrats in 2006-08, and the actual number of Obama/Trump voters that switched 100 electoral votes to the Republican was small by historic standards.
Will a reversion to that norm give Republicans a narrow House majority once again this year? That’s one result — though certainly not the only one — that would be consistent with the primary results we’ve seen so far. Opinion can shift: perhaps another blue wave is building. But the one almost everyone was expecting six months ago seems to have crested and ebbed…”